Modeling ESD System Behavior

There’s a bunch of proposals floating around, and people seem to be designing them based on what they think ought to work.

Do we have any computer models of the system as is that we can run through different conditions? Then we could make a proposed change (say, increasing DAO lockup times, or decreasing LP rewards) to test proposals, and find out whether, or under what economic conditions or assumptions, they make the ability to keep the peg stronger or weaker.

I’m worried that without something like this we’re accepting proposals without strong evidence that they are going to be improvements.


This. And strong documentation showing the entire ecosystem and its various components would be incredibly helpful to visually analyze what’s being proposed in these discussions.

Having a computer model would be great - would be something the Dev team would need to run in parallel. Echoing @Vamoose, implementing a Dev/QA system we can simulate the changes in before going to production along with regression testing that can be run to simulate the effects of said proposals would protect the project in the long-term.

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This is something I’d be very interested in supporting.

If anyone has experience in economic modelling and testing I’d be more that happy to help them through the TIP proposal process to get tooling and a research project up.


I have been tracking the dozens of forks/clones with the changed parameters. Lots to be learned. That’s the closest thing to a model so far. Would doing something on the test. or production network, and publicizing it as a game, before launch, work? These things are difficult to model cause the game theory and human element involved.


Yeah, a lot of the games played are directly related to scale of the system.

I’d be grea to have an economist take a look at the system and other forks to compare and contract outcomes so we are able to make informed decisions as a community.

Perhaps we should hire a qualified economist?

Im sure there are a lot of ambitious PhDs out there keen to dive into crazy systems like this.

So if anyone has connections to an economics dept or knows students/profs keen to work on these types of issues then please do share this idea with them.

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You can check this link out; it’s pretty neat and has quite a few data points


This is some really great data; the total supply graph especially shows how we’ve put too much integral in our control loop and blown right through the “correct” value at full minting speed.

I still want to see a dynamic simulation of the underlying supply-theory model, though. At least so we can articulate our assumptions about how the market price is supposed to respond to system actions.